Foreclosure prevention, or foreclosure delay?

The New York Times reports details of the Obama administration foreclosure prevention initiative today, and it looks like it is only delaying the inevitable. The plan pays lenders a flat fee to reduce loan interest rates to no more than 38 percent of a family’s gross monthly income. Then the government pays the actual cost of reducing the interest rate further to 31 percent of the gross monthly income. This rate would remain for five years, then will rise one percent a year until it is back to its original amount. Let's crunch some numbers, shall we?

According to the National Associate of Realtors (NAR), the average home price in the US as of February 4th is $213,100. According to the census bureau, the average family income in 2007 was $50,233. While figures are not yet available for the current average, we would have to assume it is lower, given layoffs and wage reductions that are so common right now. Let's be conservative and call the average $45,000. Let us further assume that the family has one of those "bad" mortgages that started with low payments but quickly increased them to, 8%. That would be a monthly mortgage payment of $1,562.92 or $18,755.04 per year. This mortgage payment represents 41% of the family's gross income.

Under the Obama plan, the family's mortgage payment would be reduced to $1,162.5, roughly 5.15% interest. That rate will remain in effect for five years, then rise 1% until it is back to 8%, just under eight years total. By then the family will be back in the same boat.

Obviously, the plan hopes that inflation will cause salaries to rise so that the restored mortgage payment will by then be only 31% of gross family income. In order for that to happen, the family income has to be $60,500 by 2017. That is a 34.4% increase in family income over eight years. But according to inflationdata.com, the inflation rate in January was 0.03%. For the family to reach the magic 31% mark, inflation would have to increase substantially. If it does, inflation will not only raise wages, but also the cost of gas, food, clothing, etc. So the family's extra income will be at least partially eaten up by those increases, leaving less for the mortgage.

My question is...are we really solving the problem or just delaying it? Many of the families this plan is designed to help bought at the top of the real estate market. Now that home prices have fallen so drastically (17% in the last year alone, according to NAR), most homeowners who bought in the last several years owe much more than the home is worth. Home prices have fallen so drastically, and the economy is so sluggish, it appears likely that in eight years these rescued homeowners will still owe more than the home is worth. And unless they increase their income past inflation levels, they will again be paying too high a percentage of gross income for their mortgage.

One advantage of this plan is that it stops the bleeding now. Given our current situation, that is not a bad thing. But the plan will not "fix" the problem, as we will see after five years when those mortgage interest rates start to rise again. And those properties will continue to be a sword of Damocles hanging over the real estate market.